Expert Opinion
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Clearly specify the claim (or claims) in question.
- What relevant education, training, and experience does the person possess and very explicitly how does this translate into "expertise" on the particular subject? Simply holding a PhD provides inadequate grounds for believing the person has the "special competence" required for the matter under consideration. Any identification of expertise does not extend outside the person's specific area of competency. We should exercise care not to succumb to any tendency to more readily attribute expertise in the area of current interest when genuine expertise has already been established for the person on a different subject. A Nobel Laureate in Chemistry is not automatically an expert about claims of Vitamin C megadoses preventing people from coming down with the Common Cold.
- Is the person's record one of forming conclusions justified by the available evidence?
- Is the person in a position to be knowledgeable and up-to-date with advances and results pertinent to the claim?
- Is there good reason to believe the person's judgement is not unduly influenced by biases and distorting factors?
- How does the person deal with plausible* alternative views and with negative, conflicting, and contrary evidence about claims he or she may favour?
- Does the person exhibit a willingness to revise his or her views when the strength and state of the evidence warrants change?
- Has the person recklessly interpreted beyond or against the available evidence in other cases?
- Does the person seem to have any clear motive to "take advantage"?
- Are there any reasons to suspect the person is lying or misleading?
- Is the person being paid (or receiving a benefit) to support the claim? While being paid does not inevitably invalidate his or her opinion, we should be reluctant to ascribe credibility to such opinions until we have a good understanding of how this interest has affected the "expertness" of the views expressed.
- Does the person have a reputation in his or her field for making dependable claims?
- Do the person's views reflect any convergence of expert opinion in the field? Agreement among knowledgeable, competent, independent thinkers in the domain will not always prevent mistaken views, but where such expert consensus exists, counts against contrary views. That a majority of researchers in the field are accepting of the claim in the face of substantive doubts and problems fails to fulfil the conditions required for "expert consensus". An absence of a clear consensus among properly-qualified experts should make us especially wary about the claim and any opinion supporting it.
We should guard against seeking out experts who will confirm our expectations about our most cherished beliefs and tell us what we wish to hear - "expert-shopping" - and greet the pronouncements of "tame experts" with considerable caution.
Expert opinion at core is the fair and accurate interpretation of the available evidence pertinent to the particular subject (and reaching the most warranted conclusions about this evidence). Anything which compromises, impairs, or prevents the manifestation or application of this knowledge and skill effectively denies the person's acceptance as an "expert". It would seem critical thinking plays an essential part in the intellectual functioning of the genuine expert. We should not be timid about asking for good reasons why this person should be considered to possess relevant expertise.
A certain amount of independent research is unavoidable to evaluate "experts".
Expert opinion involves claims which are falsifiable. We should always bring to bear an attitude of openminded scepticism.
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These suggestions do not purport to be made by an expert on the subject matter and are observations from the literature†.
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